The president of the National Bank of Moldova, Anca Dragu, predicts that the US dollar will continue to strengthen due to the preservation of SRF interest rates. She expressed this opinion at a press conference where she presented the inflation forecast for 2024 and 2025.
Dragoo explained that external demand will be lower than usual and external inflation will decline due to sustained price increases. She also noted that global interest rates will fall, but not as fast as expected, which supports the strength of the US dollar. This is due to high SRF interest rates, a strong US economy and the increasing attractiveness of the dollar amid global tensions.
NBM experts predict high oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ agreement to cut oil production until June 2024. They also predict a slight decline in inflation in early 2025.
Draghu concluded that limited aggregate demand will be due to tight credit conditions and, to a lesser extent, lower external demand.
