On November 6, 2024, Donald Trump announced his victory in the U.S. presidential election, declaring himself the 47th President of the United States. In his address to supporters, he thanked the American people for their trust and described his victory as a “political triumph unprecedented in the country’s history.” Pro-Republican channel Fox News was the first to announce Trump’s victory, though the final results were still pending, with 267-268 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to win.
Trump’s victory, following a much-anticipated second term, raises many questions regarding his foreign policy, particularly concerning the war in Ukraine. In light of numerous statements Trump made during the election campaign, analysts are beginning to forecast what steps he might take regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Trump’s Promises on Ukraine
Throughout his campaign, Trump frequently commented on the conflict in Ukraine, emphasizing that his main goal was a “peaceful resolution” and “quickly ending the war.” He repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict “within 24 hours” after taking office, which many interpreted as a signal of his intent to hold tough negotiations with the key parties involved.
One of Trump’s most striking statements was about his plans to “restore America to global leadership,” while criticizing the current administration for involving the U.S. in foreign wars and spending billions of dollars on conflicts that could be resolved through dialogue. Trump emphasized that the U.S. should focus on domestic issues, and that financial aid to other countries, including Ukraine, would be reduced unless it led to “immediate peace.”
What Could Trump Do?
Revising Military and Financial Aid to Ukraine
One of Trump’s first expected actions is to revise or reduce military and financial aid to Ukraine. He has already criticized the Democratic administration for the multi-billion dollar aid packages sent to Ukraine, stating that U.S. funds should be directed toward solving domestic problems, not supporting conflicts in Europe. At the same time, he has stressed that he will push for a peaceful resolution, which could mean exerting pressure on both Ukraine and Russia to reach a compromise.
Direct Negotiations with Russia
Trump has stated multiple times that, as a “skilled negotiator,” he could initiate dialogue with Vladimir Putin to find common ground. This approach might lead to attempts to ease economic sanctions on Russia in exchange for concessions from Moscow. However, this strategy could face resistance from Congress and NATO allies, presenting a political dilemma for Trump.
Promoting a Peace Plan
Trump’s supporters believe he might propose his own “peace plan” for Ukraine, possibly involving territorial concessions or a temporary ceasefire to initiate political negotiations. However, such a move could provoke negative reactions both from Ukraine and from Western allies.
Relations with the European Union and NATO
Trump has always been skeptical about U.S. commitments to NATO, believing that Europe should take on more responsibility for its own security. If he continues this approach, it could weaken Western unity on Ukraine and affect the support Ukraine receives from European countries.
Forecasts and Possible Consequences
Trump’s victory raises diverse forecasts regarding the future of the conflict in Ukraine and global politics. Some analysts believe his approach could slow down the conflict if negotiations are successful. On the other hand, there are concerns that any easing of U.S. policy toward Russia could strengthen Moscow’s position, leading to a new escalation of tensions.
The implementation of Trump’s promises will depend on the support he receives in Congress and from U.S. international allies. It’s also important to consider Trump’s unpredictable nature and his desire for quick results, which could have both positive and negative effects on international relations.
